The year 2024 is destined to be a significant one in global political history, an unequivocal "super election year." In 2024, it is anticipated that a total of 83 nationwide elections will be held across 78 countries and regions, involving a population of 4.2 billion people, which accounts for 60% of the world's population.

Such a heavy "election task" has been referred to by many international affairs experts as "the biggest global risk of 2024." This is because, following the turnover of national governments, new leaders may implement significant policy changes, which could affect the country's diplomatic stance, economic strategy, and national defense layout. For instance, a shift from unilateralism to multilateralism, changes in alliances or alliance policies, and alterations in its role in regional or global affairs could all occur. These changes are bound to have a considerable impact on the geopolitical landscape, lead to adjustments in the balance of international power, and potentially have significant effects on international trade and the world economy, thereby influencing regional and even global peace and security.

Especially given the current situation where the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows no signs of abating, its impact is felt globally. Simultaneously, Israel's ongoing offensive in the Gaza Strip has led to severe humanitarian disasters, with spillover effects even affecting international maritime shipping. Recently, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced fluctuating and unpredictable tensions. Additionally, territorial disputes and drug trafficking issues in Latin America have also exacerbated regional conflicts. All these factors cast a significant shadow over the global peace and development agenda.

Since entering 2024, as of June 3, a number of countries have completed their scheduled "election tasks." These countries include Bangladesh, the Republic of China (Taiwan), Bhutan, Comoros, Tuvalu, Finland, El Salvador, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Israel, Belarus, Cambodia, Iran, Portugal, Senegal, Turkey, Slovakia, Maldives (parliamentary election), Croatia, Solomon Islands, Chad, North Macedonia, Panama, Dominican Republic, South Korea, Japan, and Russia. These elections encompass a variety of types, including presidential elections, national elections, parliamentary elections, local elections, lower house elections, senate elections, and second-round presidential runoffs.

On March 15, polling stations in the Kamchatka Krai and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, located at the easternmost part of Russian territory, opened at 8 a.m. local time, officially commencing voting for the 2024 Russian presidential election.

This presidential election had four candidates: the incumbent President Vladimir Putin, Leonid Slutsky of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, Leonid Kalashnikov of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and Alexei Dovankov of the New People Party. On March 21, the Central Election Commission of Russia announced the results of the presidential election, with incumbent President Putin securing re-election with 87.28% of the vote.

On April 11, the results of South Korea's 22nd National Assembly election were announced. Out of a total of 300 seats, the ruling People Power Party and its satellite parties suffered a "crushing defeat," securing only 108 seats, while the main opposition Democratic Party and its satellite parties won a total of 175 seats.

South Korean public opinion and analysts believe that the election results reflect the dissatisfaction and anger of the majority of the public towards the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and the ruling party. It also signifies that the Yoon administration is entering a "lame duck" phase, and the current situation in which the ruling party holds fewer seats than the opposition will continue. This may lead to more complex political struggles in South Korea in the future.

Similarly perplexing is the situation for the Kishida Cabinet in Japan. On April 28, three by-elections were held for the House of Representatives. All three seats were won by the Constitutional Democratic Party, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party losing all of them. These by-elections were the first national elections since the Liberal Democratic Party's "black money" scandal was exposed. Japanese media commented that the election results reflect public opinion and will heavily impact the already low approval ratings of the Kishida Cabinet.

Additionally, according to a report by Xinhua News Agency on May 7, a recent poll in Japan showed that nearly 90% of Japanese citizens do not want Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to be re-elected, with nearly 30% expressing a desire for him to "step down immediately."

According to a report by Xinhua News Agency, on June 1, voting for the 18th Lok Sabha (House of the People) elections in India was fully completed. Exit poll results indicate that the ruling National Democratic Alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, is expected to win over 350 seats, while the United Progressive Alliance, led by the Indian National Congress, is expected to secure fewer than 150 seats. In other words, the incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi has achieved an overwhelming victory.

Additionally, according to a report by Xinhua News Agency, on the evening of June 2 local time, the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa announced the results of the South African general election. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) secured 159 seats, while the Democratic Alliance came in second with 87 seats. This means that the ANC, which has been in power for 30 years, has lost its parliamentary majority for the first time.

On the evening of June 2 local time, according to the preliminary counting results announced by the Mexican National Electoral Institute, Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate of the ruling coalition led by the National Regeneration Movement, is leading in the vote count and is likely to become the first female president in Mexico's history.

On June 1 local time, Iceland held its presidential election. The preliminary counting results announced on June 2 show that businesswoman Halla Tómasdóttir has defeated former Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir and other competitors to win the election, and she is set to become Iceland's second female president.

In addition to the countries that have already completed their elections, many other nations around the world have scheduled elections starting from June this year.

Among them, Venezuela has decided to hold its presidential election on July 28. Bulgaria will conduct a "two-in-one" election for the Bulgarian National Assembly and the European Parliament on June 9. Algeria is set to hold its presidential election on September 7 this year.

This year is also an election year for the European Union. The European People's Party (a coalition of center-right political parties in Europe), the largest group in the European Parliament, has nominated the current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, as their lead candidate for the European Parliament elections in June. However, her advantage is slim. To seek re-election, von der Leyen has had to make compromises on her promoted EU "Green Deal" to appease farmers' anger. Otherwise, European politics may shift further to the right.

Additionally, on May 22, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the UK will hold an early general election on July 4. Polls show that Sunak's Conservative Party is currently trailing the opposition Labour Party by about 20 percentage points. Against this backdrop, Sunak's decision is seen as a political gamble. Thus, the UK is one of the two most uncertain countries in the "global election year" of 2024.

Among all the upcoming elections, the U.S. presidential election on November 5 is undoubtedly the most globally watched event. The ongoing controversies surrounding Donald Trump's legal issues and his eligibility for the presidential race add layers of suspense. Many international observers believe that the U.S. election represents the biggest risk in this "global election year."

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