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Paul the 'Psychic' Octopus Retires.

1 by Mark
After a flawless 8 out of 8 predictions for the World Cup Paul the Octopus has retired. :(
Image
So the field is open again for astrologers to dabble and speculate with the omnipotent cephalopod oracle having retired on a career high. I am sure many astrologers would happly do the same after such an incredible run of accuracy. Somehow we are going to have to get used to prediction without his back up in future. http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/footbal ... 809710.stm

More on the high intelligence of the Octopus:

http://discovermagazine.com/2003/oct/feateye

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

7 by Andrew Bevan
I checked the likelihood of picking 8 games in a row and getting them right. If it is a 3-way contest, i.e. home, draw or away, there are 6561 different combinations or possibilities. But if it is a two-way choice, ie. home or away, as demonstrated by Paul the Octopus, then there are 'only' 256 different combinations.

However, the figures maybe slightly misleading without considering the following. According to the bookmakers expectations, Paul backed the favorite in 5 out of 8 games and collected a total odds of 142,06:1 (Bettson). He was mainly following the success and fall of one team only - Germany, together with the final between Spain and the Netherlands.

This is still very impressive for an Octopus and I am enjoying the problem. :)

PS. I had to correct and adjust Paul's collected odds from 44:1 up to 142:1, since I discovered on double-checking that he did in fact collect 4:1 in odds on Serbia's 1-0 victory over Germany!
Last edited by Andrew Bevan on Fri Jul 16, 2010 7:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
http://www.astronor.com

8 by Mark
If we are going to apply rigorous analysis to Paul's powers I also noticed that he usually decided to eat from from the side of the tank nearest him. From the pictures I have seen this was where the German flag (and Spanish) was placed. I think the only time he went vs Germany was against Serbia wasn't it? I wonder what side of the tank he chose then? Did he break this sequence of feeding or were the flags differently arranged?

If Paul was consistent in that approach its a bit like tossing a coin eight times and getting heads each time. Remarkable, but statistically not unknown. I played a dice game with someone once who got a 6 seven times in a row (he wasn't cheating!).
This is still very impressive for an Octopus
Its pretty impressive for a sentient being of any description! I know any Skyscript member who had pulled this one off would be lauded as an astrologer of almost magical powers here! I doubt they would they get the attention Paul has though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_(octopus)#Odds

Mark
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly

9 by Mark
In a fast moving story the managers of Paul the Octopus at his home location in Munich have refused all representations from Madrid to agree a transfer deal of the oracular star. Despite an intense bidding war it appears Paul is set to stay in Germany for now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footba ... g-war.html
As thou conversest with the heavens, so instruct and inform thy minde according to the image of Divinity William Lilly
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