13 by jventura Hi there, today it's the day of the Lisbon's derby: Benfica x Sporting at 18h00. Chart data: 2014/02/09, 18h GMT, Europe/Lisbon, 38N43, 09W08 Asc: 20Leo21, MC: 13TAU04, Moon: 23GEM47 The Ascendent is for Benfica, which is ruled by an exiled Sun in the descendent. Although the Sun is angular, fast and in haiz (masculine sign, still diurnal), it is in a bad applying aspect to Saturn, a traditional malefic. So, essentially debilitated, and not much accidentally dingified. According to Chap LI of Lilly, the ruler of the Asc in the 7th gives the victory to the opponent. For Sporting, the visitor Team, I would say it is ruled by the lord of the 7th, Saturn. Saturn is peregrine, but angular, fast, direct, oriental (to the sun - traditionally a good position for saturn), and augmenting light. It scores better than the Sun, essentially and accidental dignities.. As for now, this site says the favorite is Benfica with 51% of the votes against Sporting with 40%. This would require further testing, but maybe we can see this from the rulers: Both are angular, and so, perceived as good candidates for victory, although Benfica is in the 7th which is "more visible" than the 4th house of Saturn.. Following Lilly's rules of "battles", we would give the Moon and the planet which it separates from (the Sun) to the Asc Team (home team), and the planet for which Moon applies (Mars) to the Descendant Team (visitor team). The moon is in a good house, but peregrine, slow, in contra-haiz (diurnal faction / masculine sign). It is moderately dignified (score +3 on accidental dignities), but not much. The sun was already described. Mars, for the visitor, although in exile, conjunct North-Node and cadent (although the 3rd is not considered an "evil" house by traditional astrology), it is in haiz (nocturnal faction, masculine sign), oriental, direct and augmenting light. It scores better than the Moon as for accidental dignities (total sum of +6). In summary, I wouldn't be too surprised if this would be a draw, with slight advantage for the visitor's team, mostly because there's not much essential dignities involved. However, since draws account for about 20%'s of the games, I would make my bet on the visitor team (Sporting), whose rulers are in better conditions overall. Also, the ruler of the Asc in the Desc house can be a "sign" that the home team is at the "mercy" of the opponents. (My current "statistical algorithm", which uses only the average of the essential dignities of the significators, results in a draw for this game) Later, I'll post here the result of the game.. Jo?o Ventura Quote Sun Feb 09, 2014 11:58 am
14 by Andrew Bevan A lot of interesting input and feedback here - I must take some time to look it all through. My 'boys' took a hell of a beating yesterday, considering I started off with 2 draws and Liverpool beat Arsenal 5-1 and Swansea beat Cardiff 3-0. That's only 7 goals off target. I'm looking for some simple answers because I didn't think the charts were that obvious - although there was that Moon * Uranus in the first game. But in both matches, when things took off there was total lack of balance. Could the Moon being in Gemini, being disposed by a detrimented and retrograde planet have anything to do with it? http://www.astronor.com Quote Sun Feb 09, 2014 12:15 pm
15 by jventura jventura wrote:Later, I'll post here the result of the game.. Ok, no game today in Lisbon, it will be rescheduled.. A storm is coming, lots of wind, and metal debris from Benfica's stadium roof are falling over the seats of the spectators. Luck that they could evacuate the stadium really fast, so no one got injured.. Jo?o Ventura Quote Sun Feb 09, 2014 7:02 pm
16 by GB It seems that the L1/LH effect noticed by John is not confined to the Moon; both lights show the effect. If the Sun is L1 and LH, we find that again there are very few draws. Instead of the 26% draws we have on average, in the 40 games where the Sun was L1 and LH, only 3 (7.5%) were draws. The effect is strongest with the Sun in Fire - just one draw out of 23 cases (4.3%). Quote Thu Feb 13, 2014 10:17 pm
17 by jventura GB wrote:It seems that the L1/LH effect noticed by John is not confined to the Moon; both lights show the effect. If the Sun is L1 and LH, we find that again there are very few draws. Instead of the 26% draws we have on average, in the 40 games where the Sun was L1 and LH, only 3 (7.5%) were draws. The effect is strongest with the Sun in Fire - just one draw out of 23 cases (4.3%). Hi Graham, I have now a dataset with 864 games (2010-2014 Portuguese Premier League), and I cannot confirm your results for Moon as L1/LH. In my case, for moon as L1/LH, I get this, which means draws are 25% for that case: {HouseTeam=10, VisitorTeam=5, Draw=5} However, for sun as LH, I also get a lower number of draws: AscRuler = moon: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=8, VisitorTeam=3, Draw=1}, aprox: 8.3% AscRuler = sun: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=5, VisitorTeam=6, Draw=1}, aprox: 8.3% But I get low number of draws for many other combinations, such as (LH/L1): - Jupiter/Mercury and Jupiter/Venus - Mars/Mercury and Mars/Sun (This one is quite interesting, since all are HouseTeam winnings) - Moon/Jupiter - Saturn/Jupiter and Saturn/Saturn - Sun/Moon and Sun/Sun I include the Decision Tree generated by RapidMiner (it's a data-mining free software) below, so that you can maybe cross-reference with your data, if you wish. GB wrote: If we can find a strong indicator for 2% of matches, and another for a different 4% of matches, and another for some more matches, etc. we can build-up a set of different indicators which might allow us to predict a significant number of matches. About this quotation of yours in a previous post, I would just mention that care must be taken with that approach. This can lead to what in the Machine Learning and statistics area is called over-fitting (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). It is when you have too much rules to describe a model to a problem, that it start to only work good in your original test-set.. Jo?o Ventura Code: Select allDecision Tree by RapidMiner HourRuler = jupiter | AscRuler = jupiter: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=2, VisitorTeam=4, Draw=3} | AscRuler = mars: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=5, VisitorTeam=3, Draw=5} | AscRuler = mercury: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=7, VisitorTeam=5, Draw=1} | AscRuler = moon: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=4, VisitorTeam=5, Draw=2} | AscRuler = saturn: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=5, VisitorTeam=4, Draw=3} | AscRuler = sun: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=7, VisitorTeam=2, Draw=5} | AscRuler = venus: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=7, VisitorTeam=7, Draw=3} HourRuler = mars | AscRuler = jupiter: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=2, VisitorTeam=0, Draw=0} | AscRuler = mars: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=3, VisitorTeam=2, Draw=2} | AscRuler = mercury: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=9, VisitorTeam=8, Draw=2} | AscRuler = moon: Draw {HouseTeam=1, VisitorTeam=1, Draw=5} | AscRuler = saturn: Draw {HouseTeam=3, VisitorTeam=1, Draw=3} | AscRuler = sun: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=6, VisitorTeam=0, Draw=0} | AscRuler = venus: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=16, VisitorTeam=7, Draw=5} HourRuler = mercury | AscRuler = jupiter: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=4, VisitorTeam=1, Draw=0} | AscRuler = mars: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=4, VisitorTeam=4, Draw=2} | AscRuler = mercury: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=7, VisitorTeam=9, Draw=4} | AscRuler = moon: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=21, VisitorTeam=15, Draw=11} | AscRuler = saturn: Draw {HouseTeam=8, VisitorTeam=5, Draw=8} | AscRuler = sun: Draw {HouseTeam=15, VisitorTeam=14, Draw=17} | AscRuler = venus: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=12, VisitorTeam=9, Draw=4} HourRuler = moon | AscRuler = jupiter: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=3, VisitorTeam=2, Draw=0} | AscRuler = mars: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=14, VisitorTeam=8, Draw=9} | AscRuler = mercury: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=11, VisitorTeam=16, Draw=12} | AscRuler = moon: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=10, VisitorTeam=5, Draw=5} | AscRuler = saturn: Draw {HouseTeam=5, VisitorTeam=3, Draw=5} | AscRuler = sun: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=3, VisitorTeam=6, Draw=2} | AscRuler = venus: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=16, VisitorTeam=8, Draw=12} HourRuler = saturn | AscRuler = jupiter: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=3, VisitorTeam=3, Draw=0} | AscRuler = mars: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=9, VisitorTeam=5, Draw=2} | AscRuler = mercury: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=9, VisitorTeam=8, Draw=3} | AscRuler = moon: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=6, VisitorTeam=1, Draw=3} | AscRuler = saturn: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=3, VisitorTeam=3, Draw=0} | AscRuler = sun: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=10, VisitorTeam=1, Draw=5} | AscRuler = venus: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=2, VisitorTeam=2, Draw=1} HourRuler = sun | AscRuler = jupiter: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=4, VisitorTeam=1, Draw=4} | AscRuler = mars: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=0, VisitorTeam=2, Draw=2} | AscRuler = mercury: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=13, VisitorTeam=12, Draw=7} | AscRuler = moon: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=8, VisitorTeam=3, Draw=1} | AscRuler = saturn: Draw {HouseTeam=5, VisitorTeam=4, Draw=5} | AscRuler = sun: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=5, VisitorTeam=6, Draw=1} | AscRuler = venus: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=11, VisitorTeam=10, Draw=4} HourRuler = venus | AscRuler = jupiter: Draw {HouseTeam=6, VisitorTeam=9, Draw=11} | AscRuler = mars: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=16, VisitorTeam=9, Draw=8} | AscRuler = mercury: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=22, VisitorTeam=10, Draw=8} | AscRuler = moon: VisitorTeam {HouseTeam=4, VisitorTeam=5, Draw=4} | AscRuler = saturn: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=19, VisitorTeam=10, Draw=10} | AscRuler = sun: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=10, VisitorTeam=6, Draw=3} | AscRuler = venus: HouseTeam {HouseTeam=7, VisitorTeam=3, Draw=3} Quote Fri Feb 14, 2014 6:57 pm
18 by GB The issue of over-fitting is important. What I did not explain is that Ialways look at the statistical significance of the results. In the case of L1=LH=MO, the low number of draws compared to the average from the whole dataset was significant at 0.9% (p-value = 0.9%). In the case of the Sun the p-value for the draws was 0.3%. Data mining can be very dangerous. If you use data mining software, you need it to give an indication of statistical significance for the results, and for that we need the unconditional probabilities of the various results (Home, Away, Draw) for the whole population, along with population and sample observation numbers. I am happy that the results I quoted are significant and not the result of over-testing. As you will know, if you try enough possibilities, you will find some significant ones simply by chance. That is the definition of the p-value Quote Sat Feb 15, 2014 12:42 am
19 by jventura GB wrote:In the case of L1=LH=MO, the low number of draws compared to the average from the whole dataset was significant at 0.9% (p-value = 0.9%). In the case of the Sun the p-value for the draws was 0.3%. Hi again Graham, I agree about the issue of statistical significance, which is usually set at a 0.05 threshold. However, in my dataset, the case for L1=LH=MO, still accounts for 25%. Although my dataset is 1/4 of the size of yours, I would expect that at this number of matches (864), I would also start to observe that kind of effects. I have been using statistics for my work, but at a different level (I've been building statistical metrics for finding patterns in texts), so I'm not a specialist at this. But couldn't this be a case of a "false" statistical significance, i.e., something specific to your dataset? (Maybe we should open a new thread for discussing our statistical approaches to football games?) Jo?o Ventura Quote Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:49 am
20 by GB My results might well be specific to the English Premier League. With p-values of 0.005 and 0.003 they are certainly very significant statistically. However there is an important general point worth thinking about. Matches at the same time do not all give the same result, even allowing for differences in odds. I have noticed that different leagues seem to show different patterns. So, the effect of a particular astrological configuration on a match in the Premier League is often different to it's effect on a match in the Championship, and this is different again to an FA Cup match. This is why I concentrate on just one league rather than look at matches in different leagues and in different countries. Quote Sat Feb 15, 2014 11:47 am
21 by jventura GB wrote:Matches at the same time do not all give the same result, even allowing for differences in odds. I have noticed that different leagues seem to show different patterns. This happens within the same league. For instance, I have some cases of two games from the same (Portuguese) league that occur at the same time (locations not to far), and on one it is the house team that wins, the other is the visitors. Some times it is a victory followed by a draw.. This makes me think that there is something not really 100% true about the Ascendent being always the house team, and the 7th the opponent, at least as in the analysis I've making of this.. Also, theoretically there is something about "free-will" in astrology. For instance, even if we get the correct astrological variables to model a football game, in theory, if we account for some degree of "free will", we shouldn't get the so much desired 100% efficiency of the model.. (Interesting research indeed, not only for the ?/?/$ that one could win if one gets the right model, but for the learning and the demonstration of what works in astrology, and how "well" it works. ) Quote Sat Feb 15, 2014 1:48 pm
22 by Janis Valkovskis Hi jventura This makes me think that there is something not really 100% true about the Ascendent being always the house team, and the 7th the opponent, at least as in the analysis I've making of this.. That's right. If you don't mind I can send you a table for the Portuguese League. I use mainly home kit colors and sometimes city ruler's the teams represent (if I have), sometimes nickname associations to determine who is who. In the table you will see that Porto, for example, is always Jupiter regardless which sign is rising, Benfica - Mars, Academica - Saturn and so on. Then apply your algorithm. You shall notice a very pronounced statistical significance when the lord of hour is the same as the significator of a team. It is true for all leagues regardless of countries, the level of football, etc. Kind regards Janis Quote Mon Feb 17, 2014 12:46 pm
23 by jventura Janis Valkovskis wrote:If you don't mind I can send you a table for the Portuguese League. I use mainly home kit colors and sometimes city ruler's the teams represent (if I have), sometimes nickname associations to determine who is who. Hi Janis, yes, I would be most interested in trying a different approach! If you do not want to post your table here, you can drop me an email at skypluxweb@gmail.com. Have you tested with the entries on your table, and had consistent results? Thanks, Jo?o Ventura Quote Mon Feb 17, 2014 3:54 pm