Very interesting, GB. Many thanks for posting. Have you noticed that the percentages vary from season to season? As I said, I only have records for the 2008/09 season and while most of my figures agree with yours, there are a few that don't. What surprised me most about last season was that overall only 53% of the games were won by the favourites. I think this must be below average.

Do you have some kind of software that calculates all this stuff or do you do it all manually? It must be very painstaking work.

Your figure of 53% favourites winning is close to the long term average. In my collection of 1516 matches, the favs won 54.3% of the time, with underdogs winning 19.6 and the rest (24.8%) draws. The remaining 1.3% are wins (ie not draws) where there was no favourite (the home and away odds within 0.1 of each other).

I have all the results in a spreadsheet, so the analysis is reasonably easy

Strategies
In view of todays games between Bolton - Hull and Villa - Liverpool I have set up combinations with Bolton winning at home in their match in combination with various scorelines in the Villa game.

In propotion
50 p on the 4-4 scoreline - total odds 508:1
75 p on the 3-3 scorline - total odds 92,5:1
? 1 on the 2-2 scoreline - total odds 26:1
75 p on the 1-1 scoreline - total odds 12:1

I think the likelyhood is greatest for a 2-2 or 3-3 scoreline.
But look here - I haven't been much successful on the scoreline yet.

I have all the results in a spreadsheet, so the analysis is reasonably easy

I had a feeling you were going to say that My 'method' was far more crude and unsophisticated - various notebooks and scraps of paper!

Thanks for confirming those percentages. I'm still surprised that the faves don't win more often.

The 24.9% of games drawn is probably the reason faves win less than expected. Of the drawn games 73.6% have a home favourite, and 24.8% have an away favourite (the rest don't have a clear favourite).

Graham

While my mind is pounding upon the problem of how to approach the number of goals scored in a match, here is my scoreline Patent (3 singles, 3 doubles and 1 tripple) for the FA Cup on Saturday 2 Janaury:

Nottingham F - B'ham 0-2 Odds: 11:1
Plymouth - Newcastle 1-3 Odds: 16:1
Reading - Liverpool 1-5 Odds: 46:1
Total 8096:1

HOW unlikely are these scorelines? Last time Nottingham F and B'Ham met was on 14 Feb '09 with B'ham winning 2-0 at home. Newcastle met Plymouth was on 19 Sep '09 with Newcastle winning 3-1 at home. As for Liverpool, they can score lots of goals if they get going. The beat the hell out of Hull on 26 Sep '09 winning 6-1 at home. Prior to that they beat Villa 5-0 on 22. March '09 and beat ManU 1-4 (!!) on 14. March '09. Reading took a 4-1 beating from Plymouth last week on 28 Dec '09, who we can see are up against Newcastle. 1-5 against Liverpool is not impossible if you consider Liverpool are in a position of wanting to gain both faith and confidence.

The patent has to hit one 'single' to make a profit. Please note that my example was entered as a mental exercise and the scorelines are not the result of astrological prediction. I hope you will allow it, Ficina. I was hoping that some research into the history of the teams and results (see dates) might provide a clue that can be picked up on later.

Results:
Nottingham F - B'ham 0-0
Plymouth - Newcastle 0-0
Reading - Liverpool 1-1 !

I haven't got a clue how to sort this out at present.