Hello Ficina,

I am not by nature a gambling man. I usually make a bet on the Grand National horse race or the World Cup football. However, I may put a bet on the election outcome this time. I am afraid I am not very familiar with betting odds. A lot of bookies are giving a hung parliament 13/8 odds right now. What does that actually mean?

Thanks

Mark

Hi Mark,

Well, the odds for there not being a hung parliament are 4/9, so according to the bookies it's an odds-on certainty that there won't be a hung parliament.

A lot of people find decimal odds easier to understand than fractional odds. (If you scroll down the betting page, there is an option to switch to decimal odds.) So regarding a hung parliament

No: 1.44
Yes: 2.62

I've never followed electional odds but I suppose it's possible that the odds will change over the coming weeks as a reaction to opinion polls etc.

Thanks Ficina,

Well, the odds for there not being a hung parliament are 4/9, so according to the bookies it's an odds-on certainty that there won't be a hung parliament.

Great! I'm off to place a bet on a hung parliament now! Seems odd the bookies are saying that the Tories as likely to form a majority government. The Conservatives 7-8% lead in the most recent poll isn't enough to form a government according to the pollsters. They are maybe counting on Cameron moving ahead of Brown in the leaders TV debates that are coming up.

Mark

Thanks Steven,

I have taken the liberty of inserting the chart for the accession of Gordon Brown or 'kissing hands' into your post above. Hope you dont mind.

Thats a very instructive post. I cant claim to be familiar with all the techniques you describe here. You certainly put some of us to shame with the crudeness of our technique If that is just a few thoughts the mind boggles what you would come up with if you really focused on this topic.

One important point you mention is that Mercury is VOC & moving away from the Sun. I didn't have access to software or an emphemeris when I posted last night. This gives me some cause for thought on my previous comments about Labour and the Liberals entering a coaltion.

I next looked at the Ingress chart of the year for England. I know it is very common for people to assign the 4th to ?opposing? candidates. However I have never found this thought to be true and secondly all the candidates are in fact a part of the current government and not enemies to the government, which is what the fourth signifies. I believe that the various political parties are denoted by the rulers of the Midheaven. Gemini has no exalted ruler so we have Mercury as the ruler and nocturnal triplicity ruler, Saturn as the diurnal triplicity ruler, and Jupiter participating triplicity ruler. In this scenario I find it far more fitting that Saturn is the conservative party and Jupiter the Liberal Democrats. There are other parties of course but it is these three which generally make or break a majority government.

Thats a very interesting point. I have tended to just accept the convention that the 4th house represents the opposition parties. That may be true during a government but as you point out during an election everything is up for grabs. In the UK the parliament is dissolved during the General election campaign month and the government is very much in care-taker mode. The convention of 10th vs 4th goes back to the era of Kings and those opposing the Kings party. However, in an era of democratic politics the dynamic is different.

I hope to open a thread doing a retrospective of Aries Ingress charts from around the world looking at how well the traditional rules work in contemporary democratic politics.

Some time back in this thread Deb questioned why I was putting up an end of poll chart rather than an opening of poll chart. I suggested that I had been swayed by Andrew Bevan's argument that in modern politics the opening of polls was no longer the formal beginning of the election. Postal votes can be be made days before polls open. Nevertheless, whether it is a fundamental inception moment or not it still seems worth looking at the opening of poll chart.

It should be noted that the bookers (oddschecker.com) are giving for the Uk election:

Conservative Majority: 1.6
No overall majority 2.5
Labour majority 10-13

So, the majority of betters think that a Labour majority is a very unlikely event.

Of course we can argue that maybe all of the betters are conservative, but in my experience most times the betters are looking for the profit.

So, without any form of astrology, we already expect the Labour party to suffer a big hit. How strong that hit will be is the topic to be discussed.

So, without any form of astrology, we already expect the Labour party to suffer a big hit. How strong that hit will be is the topic to be discussed.

Hello Yuzuru,

Thats right. The opinion polls agree too. A Labour majority is highly unlikely. Thats looked the case for ages. The uncertainty is whether the Conservatives will have enough seats to govern without a coalition partner. If they dont a whole lots of possibilities open up.

The possibilities in a no overall control parliament are as follows:

1 Conservatives try to govern alone as a 'minority government'.
2 Conservatives only need support of Ulster Unionist party to form a government.
3 Conservatives form coalition with Liberal Democrats
4 Labour and Liberal Democrats form a coalition government
5 Labour, Liberal Democrats and Nationalists form a coalition
6 Conservatives , Labour and Liberals form a national government.

The last option seems highly unlikely! Anyway, I have been down to the Bookmakers and put my bet on a hung parliament.

Regarding the natal data of the main party leaders I have realised I have been remiss in failing to display these even though there has been discussion of their charts in regards Solar Returns.

I have put them up in the following order: Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg. NB: I have not rectified their birth times. Natal data for Brown is from his birth certificate and Cameron is from Frank Clifford. We dont seem to have a time for Nick Clegg so I have cast a noon chart for him.

Below I have placed their their natal data in a biwheel with the opening of poll time being the inner wheel. This being provided as a general reference for members to study. Cameron and Clegg are reasonably close in age so there are some similarities. For example, both have their Saturn exactly on Jupiter in the opening of poll chart.

As I have very few events for Nick Clegg, rectification for his chart is very difficult. Judging from his appearance my guess is that he has Libra rising. If he really has Libra rising, the most plausible birth time is 1.14 UT Asc 23Lib45'. Jupiter 180 Venus exactly on MC/IC axis, sextile and trine to the Moon.

How interesting that Nick Clegg?s nativity has an almost exact Saturn-Uranus opposition which mirrors the current opposition, and is close by degree (I see this opposition as a very important contributing factor for many of the current meteorological and transportation problems). This aspect cut across MC-IC axis of the closing of the polls chart we considered at the beginning of April. - http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic ... 67&start=3

One of the comments I made on that chart was ?I also think the Jupiter-ruled ascendant and change to the Libran MC points to the Liberals doing particularly well (although, it's the Liberals, so not enough to take the leadership, but enough to make us all notice).? I hadn?t seen Nick?s chart at that time, but I think this reflection of his natal signature indicates the period where his natal promise is activated. He seems to have 'found his moment'.

Deb

One of the comments I made on that chart was ?I also think the Jupiter-ruled ascendant and change to the Libran MC points to the Liberals doing particularly well (although, it's the Liberals, so not enough to take the leadership, but enough to make us all notice).? I hadn?t seen Nick?s chart at that time, but I think this reflection of his natal signature indicates the period where his natal promise is activated. He seems to have 'found his moment'

Hi Deb,

Yes well done! Our first correct prediction.

For anyone not up on current developments Nick Clegg the leader of the Liberal Democrats ,the UK third party ( often seen as the also rans) did remarkably well in the first televised leaders debate in the UK last Thursday night. Clegg was probably not that well known before the first debate. However, his popularity has surged dramatically after the debate. He is generally acknowledged as the 'winner'. Quite a surprise considering David Cameron was regarded as the most eloquent speaker before the debate. Some polls are now even showing the Liberal Deocrats ahead of the Conservatives and Labour in the UK polls. While this might be a short term effect it seems clear the Liberal Democrats are almost guaranteed to put in a very strong showing in the general election. The main obstacle they face are the vagaries of the British electoral system which is structurally biased towards the two traditional parties which have concentrated guaranteed support in 'safe seats'. Parties with broad popular appeal that is not so concentrated, like the Liberal Democrats, tend to fair worse even with a high percentage of votes. Still, even Gordon Brown has acknowledged the UK election is now 'wide open' and a clearly rattled Cameron is now turning his fire on the Liberal Democrats and the dangers of a hung parliament.

Andrew Bevan has a point about close of poll charts. Another chart I noticed that strongly reveals Nick Clegg's popular appeal is the UK national chart (1927) which I regard as the most reliable national chart for modern Britain. I will put that up next.

Mark

As I indicated I consider the 1927 chart as the most reliable national chart for modern Britain. Thats not to say other charts traditionally used charts such as 1066 or , 1801 dont respond to events too. However, I have put the 1927 chart through a lot of historical testing and it holds up very well and in my opinion often better than its rivals. Here is the skyscript thread that makes the historical case for the the 1927 chart.

http://skyscript.co.uk/forums/viewtopic.php?t=2003

Maurice McCann's research reminds us of the often ignored fact that the modern state of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland legally and constitutonally only came into existence in 1927.

I will probably open up a thread up at some point to share my research with the chart tested by historical events. . In the meantime I want to get back to the general election. Here is the 1927 chart:
Here is a biwheel with the UK (1927) chart in the centre and Nick Clegg's Solar chart on the outer wheel.
Its frustrating we don?t have more accurate timing for Clegg. Its not clear how close Clegg?s natal Moon is to the Sagittarius rising/Saturn rising chart for the UK. I suspect it is fairly close. However, its likely placement in the UK first house generally does surely reflect his ability to appeal to public opinion.

Even without a chart with angles there are lots of other connections to the 1927 chart. A short summary:

Saturn (Clegg) Conjunct Mercury (1927 chart)
Sun (Clegg) Sextile Jupiter (1927 chart)
Venus (Clegg) Sextile Uranus (1927 chart)
Mars (Clegg) opposition Sun (1927 chart)
Jupiter (Clegg) Conjunct POF (1927 chart)
Jupiter (Clegg) square Uranus (1927 chart)
POF (Clegg) square Mars (1927 chart)
Saturn (Clegg) square Mars (1927 chart)
Mercury (Clegg) Opposition Pluto (1927 chart)
Neptune (Clegg) trine Mercury (1927 chart)
Neptune (Clegg) square Moon/Neptune (1927 chart)

Interestingly, Clegg?s Uranus ?Saturn opposition falls across the UK Mercury. The degree it falls on 10 Capricorn is close to a pivotal degree in other UK charts such as the 1066 and 1801 chart. The Lunar eclipse last December which fell along 10 Cancer-10 Capricorn also fell on Clegg?s Mercury.

I will put up the other leaders for comparison later.