its been a while since i considered the chart for turkey which i think it quite reliable... here it is in sidereal.. the details are oct 29th, 1923, 830pm, ankara turkey.. 2 hours off utc.. https://www.astro.com/astro-databank/Na ... (Republic)



essentially it is a bucket chart with uranus-ketu as the handle of the bucket.. these are in the 9th house which also happens to be in the midheaven...9th house midheaven..

as many already know, turkey has been doing an interesting dance on the world stage given its geographic location so central to much of europe... some of this dance has been with nato and more generally all of the fall out from the ongoing dynamic with regard to syria, the arab states and etc. etc.. if you look at the planet as one big chess game - i think it is referred to as 'the great game', turkey is an important player and of great value to the bigger chess pieces on the board!

2 news sites based in turkey that are helpful for following the issues of turkey as shared below..
https://www.dailysabah.com/
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/

erdogans chart is subject to questions of accuracy... in considering how the election will go this weekend, it would be most helpful to have accurate birth times for both the leading candidates - erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu, but i don't... thus, i wonder if it is possible to get some type of answer off the national chart itself??

from a cursory glance at the news, it seems the theme of nationalism is one of the main drivers in this election... who is the greater nationalist?? politics is an ugly business and very divisive by nature, so it is no surprise that this would be on the agenda... who is the greater nationalist? lol... but with regard to the national chart, i see that the south node is transiting the sun, so the eclipse cycle to this chart is very relevant at this time... the sun represents the leader and ketu with the sun seems to represent a more generous and benevolent combo as i understand it... perhaps erdogan is viewed as some type of benevolent father figure to the people of turkey.... the event from some 6 or 7 years ago ( coup d'etat 2016) where there was some uncertainty and issue of an insurrection helped solidify erdogans position within turkey.. at the same time erdogan has been increasingly viewed as an autocratic and dictatorial type leader by the west which may ironically help erdogan on the local scene within turkey..

erdogan is a savvy and shrewd politician who has been able to maintain power.. whether he does so here is an open question! with regard to the national chart, saturn continues its ascent towards the midheaven which i view as bringing greater benefit to turkey in the coming couple of years... whether erdogan remains as president, or he is replaced with Kılıçdaroğlu, i still think turkey is in the ascendancy here for a number of reasons more general then astrological, but some astro too like this transit of saturn..

in looking at the DD rated chart for erdogan which i have looked at many times before! - i note the close connection to what i consider the most important part of his chart - sun with square from mars-moon conjunction with the important transit of saturn to this same configuration.. . saturn is on his natal sun and thus squares onto the moon -mars conjunction... regardless of what house any of this lands in - it is a very important transit! karma time, lol... i tend to think erdogan is going to retain power here, but i could be wrong... using sidereal - his sun is in aquarius, while saturn is in libra... bringing these 2 together is interesting here... saturn squaring onto mars in scorpio wouldn't be helpful at this time.. he has maybe had to crimp his more fiery style somewhat and has found this election cycle more challenging for the restrictions and limitations it has placed on him...

we will see soon enough!

The 2023 Aries Ingress for Turkey ???????? is straight and frank. ????

The 10th house ruler, Mercury (the ruling party or the current President), is combust by the Sun in the 4th house, representing the ruling party's "death" ????.

The Sun is the ruler of the 9th house, which may represent overseas voters.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is in trouble.

All Angles Mutable + the Moon Mutable (change) and Angular (important change) are all the ingredients you need in the soup.

it is hard hanging onto power for forever... even the usa isn't immune, lol... for the longest time, i didn't have any great regard for erdogan, but he has shown his ability to navigate politics in a pretty savvy way... i agree this is perhaps the biggest challenge to him and that the fellow who is running opposite him is a strong challenger and contender.. i have no idea who is going to win.. it is always difficult to impossible working in the dark with no concrete birth times for either leading candidates... erdogans transits look quite challenging, so it is possible he doesn't hold onto power... i have looked at kemals day chart.. one obvious transit in his favour is t jupiter moving to conjunct his natal north node, while the north node rules his sun/mercury conjunction.. in fact, jupiter forms a very nice trine to his planets in sag, and the nodal axis returns to its natal position at this time.. all of this i consider very positive..

here is kemals chart in sidereal for noon dec 17th, 1948, ballica, turkey - there are a few ballicas..



here is the wiki page on kemal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kemal_K%C ... ro%C4%9Flu

i have been follow turkey more closely since having traveled to turkey in 2012.. i have always liked kemals energy and positions generally.. although it is always hard to know another culture without living their, i have taken a special interest in turkey in some respects.. a change in the political leadership for turkey would probably be a good thing... it is an important player on the international scene and has been geographically close to a lot of the instability - syria and ukraine... obviously it is an important chess piece in the great game... turkey has taken a 'neutral' stance with regard to ukraine and kemal says he will continue that if he is elected.. here is the quote from a link in wikipedia that i have shared above..

"Kılıçdaroğlu has approved of Erdoğan's "balanced" handling of the Russia-Ukraine War, and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. He promised to continue construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which is being built by Russian contractors."

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as an aside, i don't put any faith in aries ingress data... but you might enjoy reading this article i just reviewed..

https://classicalastrologer.com/2023/03 ... inox-2023/

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based on a superficial read off inconclusive charts i think kemals transits are more favourable then erdogans.... this is not a prediction, lol - but on balance that is how i view the forecast thru a foggy window... another nice synergy that i think kemal has going for him is what appears to be a natal moon in sidereal gemini which is the same for the national chart for turkey.... again - foggy window stuff without actual concrete data..

https://asiatimes.com/2023/05/turkish-e ... -the-west/

Hi Everyone,

If we take Aries Ingress charts as stand alone prediction tools on elections as Wei has already presented its a very clear cut loss for Erdogan. We might as well all close up shop now and all go home then right? Not exactly.

In my experience ingress charts are largely about giving us the general mood music not specifics as a stand alone chart. Lets recall they were developed originally by the Greeks as charts for the four seasons of the year to measure climate and weather conditions not politics. It was the later Perso-Arabs who suggested them as a pre-eminent mundane technique.But the Perso-Arabs used them to describe the founding of dynasties not democratic election contests.

I have seen several traditional astrologers go wrong on prediction using just the ingress chart. Ingress charts are not the be and end all and there is no magic silver bullet in mundane astrology. I do think though that combining the nativity of the candidates with the Aries Ingress is a useful technique. Deborah Houlding used that methodology to great effect predicting Biden would win the last US Presidential election. But of course that was just one election between just two options. The method will need considerable repeat testing to verify its reliability. I also think checking out the transits to ingress charts is very worth exploring. But my take is that mundane astrology requires a lot of time and hard slog working through lots and lots of charts to see if there is a recurring testimony or repeating themes.

So what are the other charts saying for Turkey?

First off I always use the opening of poll chart as a political contest chart if there are two main parties or rivals. The incumbent symbolized by ASC and its ruler and the DESC and its ruler their opponent. There are both Presidential and parliamentary elections taking place today in Turkey. But there is little doubt the eyes of the world are on the crucial Presidential contest.

Opening of polls in Turkey is at 8.00am. Close of polls 5.00PM



This looks like a very strong showing for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the political opposition in general as Saturn symbolising the political opposition is conjunct the MC. However, Erdogan symbolised by Moon still commands substantial support with the Moon in Pisces in 10th house separating from a trine to Venus and a sextile to the Sun. The noteable thing about Erdogan's significator here is that it is more dynamic going forward. Saturn is in a separating trine to Venus and separating sextile to Mercury.

Its possible Kılıçdaroğlu could win outright today. However, it seems more plausible this could go to two rounds if neither candidate gets over 50% of the popular vote.

We will then need to examine the Opening of Poll chart on the 28th.



Again, the Moon and Saturn are the key significators of the two protagonists.
By the 28th the Sun moves to a square of Saturn in the original opening of poll chart. The Sun is placed in Gemini in the 12th house. The Moon in Virgo in the chart of the 28th opposes its position in the original opening of poll chart. The Moon is applying to a very wide trine of the Sun.

I note Neptune in the 10th house of the second opening of poll chart fairly close to the MC. This kind of echoes something several analysts have been stating which is the Turkish people are looking for a saviour. But is it the more free enterprize, secular, libertarian vision of Kılıçdaroğlu or the more paternalist, religious, conservative vision of Erdogan the people are seeking?

Another concern with Neptune in the 10th though is the possibility of disputed result and electoral fraud. Previous Turkish elections and not been found very free and fair according to International observers. The Turkish media is also largely controlled by the Erdogan administration.

Another chart I thought worth exploring is the chart for when Erdogan became President (28th of August 2014). Technically, the constitution states a President can only serve two 5 year terms. However, Erdogan found a loophole round that by holding his referendum in 2017 so technically he is still counted as being in his first term!

Its interesting to look at the close of poll transit around that chart as a Bi-Wheel.



Some tough transits here. Tr Uranus is opposing the Mars in the Presidential chart. Tr Neptune is conjunct the Saturn. The former aspect indicates quite a jolt for Erdogan while the latter may suggest a weakening of his authority. Saturn-Neptune is often about breaking down of established structures or traditions.

Now lets examine the natal charts of both candidates as Bi-Wheels with the close of poll transits for today. Keep in mind neither are timed and are Rodden rated DD (Erdogan) which means conflicting times provided and X rated (Kılıçdaroğlu) which means no time available at all. So we dont know the angles of the charts and the Moon degree could be approximately 6 degrees either side of the Noon position displayed in both charts.

First Erdogan



Tr Saturn conjunct his Sun. This will be the same if there is a run off in a fortnight but the conjunction will be even closer. Tr Sun Square Pluto today. MC of the chart on Erdogan's South Node/Ketu

Now lets look at Kılıçdaroğlu



Kılıçdaroğlu is going through his 4th nodal return. Hence the nodes are almost conjunct natal position. His Tr Saturn is also opposing his natal Saturn. This could be seen as a coming into a new position of authority. Prince Charles, who was just crowned as British King last weekend was born shortly before Kılıçdaroğlu- in November 1948 so has these same transits going on right now.

Tr Jupiter applies to a separating trine to his Sun and Mercury. Tr Neptune is applying to square Kılıçdaroğlu's Uranus. Tr Mercury is trine Saturn. Less positively, Kılıçdaroğlu's Tr Venus is on the IC of the close of poll chart.

In the close of poll chart the Lot/Part of Fortune is on the Kılıçdaroğlu. This may suggest increased power and responsibility.

I need to wrap this up. Lets summarise that if this reaches a conclusion today I think Kılıçdaroğlu is the more likely winner. If it moves to the 28th I will need to reassess. However, I do note that the ingress of Jupiter into Taurus would be on Kılıçdaroğlu's north node if a second election takes place.

Thanks Mark for your detailed analysis.
Too many unreliable data in this election.
Turkey is heading to a pool-tree (pun intended).
50/50 chance to the winner.

thanks mark

i like how you are trying to turn a sows ear into a silk purse! i am curious what you left out in this first line below? maybe this is a new asteroid i am unfamiliar with - the kilicudaroglu?

lol cheers james

Mark wrote:
In the close of poll chart the Lot/Part of Fortune is on the Kılıçdaroğlu. This may suggest increased power and responsibility.

James wrote:

thanks mark

i like how you are trying to turn a sows ear into a silk purse!

Not sure what your driving at there.

James wrote:

i am curious what you left out in this first line below? maybe this is a new asteroid i am unfamiliar with - the kilicudaroglu?

What would life be without a wee typo here and there! I'm tempted to leave it uncorrected.The bi-wheel to kilicudaroglu's natal chart is there. Its easy enough to figure out the POF to kilicudaroglu's natal planet.

Ouranos wrote:

50/50 chance to the winner.

mmm In which case why do we even bother? At times I do wonder!

If this goes to a second round I will put this through the analysis grinder.

There are several techniques not discussed yet. Like both natal charts compared to the Aries ingress. Also the secondary progressed Moon by declination. A powerful technique that works perfectly without a timed chart. Initial analysis suggests this favours Kılıçdaroğlu over Erdogan.

But my main concern here is that there may be electoral fraud going on to keep Erdogan in power. Probably, not on a big enough scale to stop a large majority for Kılıçdaroğlu. But if its a question of a few % between them it could be the decisive factor.

hi mark

i am not driving at too much... it mostly has to do with my own thoughts on the value of the aries ingress and your input on this topic in your post..

it is interesting your inclusion of the pof.... mostly it is seen as a dumb note in charts, so it is nice to see someone trying to incorporate its use... in your use of this part, do you only look at 1 degree conjunctions/oppositions, or do you also consider other aspects like the square? i suspect a wider orb would be fine.. after all it is imposing the importance of the sun-moon phase as a point into the chart.. if this is replicated in the natal chart, i could see how it has merit... although i don't really consider it much, i think conjunctions to the pof are the most relevant..

however, in kilicudaroglu chart in relation to the closing poll, it is mostly a coincidence that seems irrelevant.. the sun-moon phase as seen in the closing poll is an 11th house moon to sun or moon is approx 60 behind the sun, but 2 different ascendants are used and pluto in his natal chart has nothing to do with that phase... just trying to explore the value or not of this further... when you overlap the 2 charts, it looks to me look one is comparing apples to oranges here, at least with regard to the inclusion of the pof, which is an abstraction to begin with..

Mark wrote

Also the secondary progressed Moon by declination. A powerful technique that works perfectly without a timed chart.

Do you have any link, document or example explaining this technique?

Thank you,
Ouranos

The current situation is that neither side has a majority, there will be a second round of voting.

The Moon conjunction Neptune squares Mars, this election will bring chaos and turmoil. The voters are irritable.

In my experience ingress charts are largely about giving us the general mood music not specifics as a stand alone chart.

Mark, you are right thank you ??????