Odds and Ends in January 1 by Andrew Bevan This is were I start on a report and examination on some of January's bettings. Some are good, others are at fault. I won't go to detail on every bet placed through the month, just take a look at what placing a bet is like. There are single and multiple bets, and we will be looking at odds, total odds and how astrology, favourites and underdogs performed. Maybe this will tell us more about the problem at hand, the nature of the game and the usefulness of astrology in determining what can be predicted. January started quite nice with a single bet on AstonVilla who were favourites at home against Tottenham. Jan.1: Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur 1 Odds: 2.45 2-1 Odds are quoted 2.33 3.18 2.88, but I got better than that at Unibet. The game is fairly open, but astrology stuck with the favourites. On the same day: Newcastle United - Manchester City 2 Odds: 3.00 0-2 Blackburn Rovers ? Sunderland 1 Odds: 1.62 1-0 Real Madrid - Alicante 1 Odds:1.15 2-1 Triple(x1) Total odds: 5.59 This was rather a good triple going with the favourites Blackburn and Real Madrid, but picking up on odds with astrology saying ManC to beat Newcastle at the price of 3.00. Total odds: 5.59:1!! Jan.2: Here I tried a combination of 5 matches going with the favourites. Notice how Sevilla only just got CD Denia and then there were two draws that proved the combination worthless. Sevilla - CD Denia 1 Odds: 1.12 4-3 Valencia - Real Uni?n 1 Odds: 1.25 3-0 Atl?tico Madrid ? Granada 74 1 Odds: 1.35 1-1 Liverpool - Wigan Athletic 1 Odds: 1.22 1-1 Blackburn Rovers ? Sunderland 1 Odds:1.55 1-0 Multiple bet Total odds: 3.57 This was the day Liverpool played a draw to Wigan. Viewing the total odds 3.57:1 is not much of a collection for spreading risk over 5 matches. And as we can see it didn't pay off - so the moral may be: Keep it simple! http://www.astronor.com Quote Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:58 pm
2 by Andrew Bevan Jan.4: CA Monarcas Morelia - Am?rica X Odds: 3.40 0-1 Toluca - Atlas 2 Odds: 4.15 0-0 Double bet Total odds: 14.11 I'm including this bet which you can see didn't work out but isn't completely without merit because I went for a combination of an underdog and a draw. The games collected a total odds of 14.11:1. Not quite - but an interesting experiment. Acad?mica Coimbra - S.C. Braga 1 Odds: 2.85 3-3 Lens - Niort X Odds: 4.00 0-1 Double bet Total odds: 11.40 This second douplet presents a similar situation. I went off the favourites, which was correct - but in the first match there was a draw and the second game the underdog most interestingly won. Now it would take a lot of betting on the favourites to build up a price of 14.11:1 or 11.40:1 - but this does just show how that price may be gained from a combination of two games - and you might not be far off your mark! Closer to home, I tried two combinations of 5 games that went with the favourites: Chasetown - Cardiff City 2 Odds: 1.30 1-3 Wolverhampton - Cambridge 1 Odds:1.26 2-1 Everton - Oldham Athletic 1 Odds: 1.20 0-1 Leeds United - Northampton 1 Odds: 1.52 3-0 Chelsea - Queens Park 1 Odds: 1.15 1-0 Multiple bet Total odds: 3.44 Wolverhampton - Cambridge 1 Odds: 1.26 2-1 Luton - Liverpool 2 Odds: 1.25 1-1 Leeds United - Northampton 1 Odds: 1.52 3-0 Burnley - Arsenal 2 Odds: 1.40 0-2 Chelsea - Queens Park 1 Odds: 1.15 1-0 Multiple bet Total odds: 3.85 Both examples show how little value there is to be fetched by going with the favourites. These matches should have been won by default, but in the first combination Everton mucked up against Oldham, and then Liverpool were under the influence of something while fighting it out against Luton. These games tell you more about trying to get things too complicated to pick up odds more than anything else, and then how far you should go in terms of trusting the favourites. http://www.astronor.com Quote Sat Feb 02, 2008 2:52 pm
3 by Andrew Bevan Jan.5: Norwich - Bury 1 Odds: 1.38 1-1 Blackburn - Coventry 1 Odds: 1.38 1-4 West Ham - Man City 2 Odds: 2.75 0-0 Triplet, Total Odds: 5.23 This was a hopeless bet. I thought astrology favoured ManC and tried to improve the odds by going with what looked like two default matches. Nothing worked! Or a least my judgement was off! What on Earth was I thinking about!? Next: Sunderland - Wigan 2 Odds: 3.40 0-3 West Ham - Man City 2 Odds: 2.75 0-0 Leeds - Northampton 1 Odds: 1.60 3-0 Triplet, Total odds: 14.69 Much more interesting!! On the same day I tried another combination following astrology, which collected conserably higher odds, 14.69:1. I played ManCity here, aswell, which was the only game that was missing that deciding goal! A bit unfortunate, really, but this combination does demonstrate that going with the favourites like in the first example is not always your best bet! Jan. 8: Monterrey - San Luis 1 Odds: 3.75 1-0 Arsenal - Tottenham 1 Odds: 2.00 1-1 Double, Total odds: 7.50 Darn it, Arsenal! Fortunately, I played the above combination as both a double and two single bets. Monterrey were the underdogs in the first chart and won the game according to the astrology. I think I was playing Arsenal as a default in the 2nd came - but it didn't work out. My betting strategy should have been elsewise, because with Spurs showing strength I lost my stake in both the double and the Arsenal single. So at the end of the day I was about Even-Stevens! The trouble with playing one game in sevaral combinations is that the one hiccup spoils it for the rest! http://www.astronor.com Quote Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:11 pm
4 by Andrew Bevan Jan. 12: Hull City - West Bromwich 2 Odds: 2.38 1-3 Single, Total odds: 2.38:1 This was a nice a simple single demonstrating the use of astrology. The price was fair, too! Jummy! Jan. 13: Sunderland - Portsmouth 1 Odds: 2.60 2-0 Bolton - Blackburn 2 Odds: 2.65 1-2 Double, Total odds: 6.89 Another simple combination of two matches this time. Both matches move away from the favourite and collected a total odd of 6.89!! Way to go!! Bolton - Blackburn 2 Odds: 2.65 1-2 Stjernen - Vaalerenga 2 Odds: 1.40 3-7 Trondheim - Sparta 2 Odds: 1.40 2-4 Storhamar - Lillehammer 1 Odds: 1.40 2-2 Furuset - Frisk/Asker 2 Odds: 1.65 3-5 Multiple bet, Total odds: 12.00:1. I had tried placing the Blackburn game in a multiple combination together with games from the Norwegain ice-hockey leauge, which ws performing in a rather predictable manner at the time. Total odds 12.00:1 - it was a fair bet!! Then the league leaders, Storhamar, suprizingly gave away a home game, drawing with the underdogs, before the matter was settled during 'Sudden Death'. The favourites got it, but no use to me. How close!! Moral: If you want to keep it safe, keep it simple! Small things may upset the balance! http://www.astronor.com Quote Sun Feb 03, 2008 12:37 pm
5 by Andrew Bevan Jan. 14: Crewe - Leeds 2 Odds: 1.80 0-1 Brest - Le Havre 2 Odds: 2.45 0-2 Double, Total odds: 4.41 This was a nice combination of two matches. Nothing too complicated. Nice price & good astrology! Jan. 16: Gretna - Rangers 2 Odds: 1.25 1-2 Rome - Torino 1 Odds: 1.33 4-0 ManC - West Ham 1 Odds: 2.05 1-0 Triplet, Total odds: 3.41 A nice combination of 3 games. The ManC game picks up the odds and the value is increased by going with the almost defaults, Rome and Rangers. Jan. 19: Wigan - Everton 2 Odds: 2.25 1-2 Man C - West Ham 2 Odds: 3.75 1-1 Porto - Desportivo 1 Odds: 1.10 2-0 Triplet, Total odds: 9.28 While astrology was in favour of ManC on the 17th, I thought there was a turn in favour of West Ham on the 19th. A nice triplet with Everton beating Wigan at a nice price built the odds up to 9.28:1. ManC didn't manage to copy their success earlier in the week, but West Ham were missing that deciding goal! That's the way it goes! http://www.astronor.com Quote Sun Feb 03, 2008 4:06 pm
6 by Andrew Bevan Jan. 21: Chesterfield - Hereford X Odds: 3.10 4-0 Liverpool - Aston Villa X Odds: 3.60 2-2 Double, Total odds: 11.16 Here's me trying to go for draws. A combination of two games would have paid the party. Liverpool-Villa was nice, but my did my skills get a beating at Chesterfield. Jan. 22: Egypt - Kamerun 1 Odds: 3.25 4-2 Sudan - Zambia 1 Odds: 3.65 0-3 Cambridge - Droylsden 1 Odds: 1.30 5-0 Swansea - Crewe 1 Odds: 1.36 2-1 Multiple bet, Total odds: 20.97 I had to try this one. The underdogs Sudan didn't make my day - I got this one wrong. But I had also entered a triplet which didn't include the Sudan - Zambia game and that gave a nice return of 5.75:1!! http://www.astronor.com Quote Sun Feb 03, 2008 5:15 pm
7 by Andrew Bevan Jan. 23: Lyon - Lorient 1 Odds: 1.40 2-0 Lillehammer - Stjernen 1 Odds: 1.40 2-4 Atalanta - AC Milan 2 Odds: 1.67 2-1 Sp Lisboa - Beira Mar 1 Odds: 1.18 3-0 Valenciennes - Lens 1 Odds: 2.05 1-2 Slovenia - Norway 2 Odds: 1.15 33-29 Spain - Sweden 1 Odds: 1.40 26-27 Multiple bet, Total odds: 12.75:1 This is an example of just how sloppy it can get. I combined international football matches with Norwegian Ice-hockey and the European Championships in Handball. I did an overview of the astrology and went with the favourites. Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy! Nothing comes easy. Keep it simple!! Paris St Germain - Metz 1 Odds: 1.45 3-0 Sporting Lisboa - Beira Mar 1 Odds: 1.20 3-0 Everton - Chelsea 2 Odds: 2.35 0-1 Triplet, Total odds: 4.09 The above triplet was good, though, which picked up value due to the price on Chelsea's victory over Everton. An overall astrological view was done on the other games - and it worked! Jan. 24: Ghana - Namibia 1 Odds: 1.08 1-0 Bordeaux - St-?tienne 1 Odds: 1.57 1-0 Double, Total odds: 1.69 This was a simple double. Going with the favourites, checking with astrology. The double is almost without value, collecting a mere 1.69:1. And while Ghana-Namibia seemed a good entry just to push the price up a bit, I shiver to think that Ghana only beat Namibia with one goal. Terrible risk/reward, but I got home and dry! Jan 26: Cambridge - Altrincham 1 Odds: 1.45 2-1 Milton Keynes - Rochdale 1 Odds: 1.85 0-1 Cameroon - Zambia 1 Odds: 1.55 5-1 Egypt - Sudan 1 Odds: 1.20 3-0 Multiple bet, Total odds: 4.99 Sticking with the favourites and checking with the astrology. Milton Keynes mucking it up at home. The wager lost due to the sloppyness of several, but a bet is a bet! http://www.astronor.com Quote Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:17 am
8 by Andrew Bevan Jan. 26: Wigan Athletic - Chelsea 2 Odds: 1.50 1-2 Besiktas - Gaziantepspor 1 Odds: 1.35 3-1 Egypt - Sudan 1 Odds: 1.18 3-0 Cameroon - Zambia 1 Odds: 1.54 5-1 Multiple bet, Total odds: 3.67 Combining astrology with a pick of favourites can pay off! Nothing terribly exciting here and it would only have taken another goal from Wigan to send the money down the drain! But we got it! Derby - ManC 2 Odds: 1.67 1-1 Egypt - Zambia 1 Odds: 1.50 1-1 Cameroon - Sudan 1 Odds: 1.10 3-0 Triplet, Total odds: 2.76 That was not the case here, though. Something went wrong - so don't imagine any sleepwalking. Chelsea - Reading 1 Odds: 1.22 1-0 Man U - Portsmouth 1 Odds: 1.25 2-0 West Ham - Liverpool 2 Odds: 1.95 1-0 Derby - Man City 2 Odds: 1.80 1-1 Multiple bet, Total odds: 5.35 This is my final entry for the month. I admit I tried some other stuff, but some of it is messy - in the name of research! WestHam had to go and beat Liverpool in this final combination, but I included this example mainly because it included Derby - ManC just like in the previous bet. This is to show how leaning on result and getting that one wrong can spoil several bets - and in the end that leaves you with nothing! Well, that concludes my submission regarding January. I hope other practitioners can take some wisdom and learning out of the realities that we deal with. The nature of the game is a combination of sport, astrology and common sense. There are lots of things that can go wrong. Being wrong is easy. Do you want to make a bet and to win? The key to success is with your homework and then acting with discipline. http://www.astronor.com Quote Mon Feb 04, 2008 10:52 am